Tuesday, July 10, 2007

The Beacon blog, blogged and Lynn Sweet wrote about a poll done for Bill Foster who is running as a democrat in the 14th congressional district.

Some questions, issues and thoughts on the whole thing.

First, the 'generic Republican vs. generic Democrat' questions seem to vague to provide any real insight into anything. So that is part of the reason why some folks are looking at the poll numbers with some skepticism. Also, it isn't fair but any time a guy who talks about putting in a lot of money into a race start referencing poll numbers early a small part of you begins to wonder about the poll and it it's goal is to keep people out of the race.

Secondly, he will have an uphill fight for the nomination if he does get in regardless of if Linda Chapa-LaVia gets in or not.

Why, because he is not currently and elected official and it does not look like he has ever run for anything locally, so he is really starting from scratch. He is going be dealing with Democratic party members who on one hand will see him as a possible winner but on the other hand will see him also as somewhat of a Johnny-Come-Lately.

Also anyone who talks about spending a large sum of their own money on a race is going to be besieged by people who are more than happy to help them spend it. That may end up being his biggest challenge.



Tom Bowen said...

Allow me to quibble with

"First, the 'generic Republican vs. generic Democrat' questions seem to vague to provide any real insight into anything."

I will certainly allow that when people pick generic Republicans or Democrats that they are forecasting their ideal choices. But it is stunning that only 30% of this district is picking the generic R.

Here's the exact language: 6. If the November 2008 election for United States Congress were held
today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for Congress?

This is the Speaker's district, a red stronghold. A number like that suggests things are seriously wrong with the Republican brand.

Rob said...

Dan Seals started "from scratch" as you put it, and won a primary against a fellow who had held elected office (a local park board office as I recall).

Didn't seem to hurt him.

Your points about managing those willing to spend your self-funded campaign money are well put. Though she wasn't self-funding, Christine Cegelis ran into similar issues before the 2004 primary.