Some thoughts on Palin...

From Fareed Zakaria 

After you read what he had to say, here are some suggestions I OneMan have...

May I suggest in 2012 or 2016 we have some sessions for Republican governors to review some national stuff.

Perhaps a set of 'so you might be a vp candidate' classes or at least some sort of on-line education.

Just sayin in might be a good investment.

OneMan

I am aware of all Metra Traditions...

Since I am aware of all Metra Traditions I figured since ridership is up I would drop some knowledge on you all...

• If there are still seats available on the uper deck don't sit on the stairway leading to the uper deck.
• Don't say you are waiting for someone and hold a seat when it is obvious you just don't want someone sitting with because of their size, gender or race. It is really obvious.
• If you are riding any sort of express train, don't put your stuff on the second seat. It's going to be needed poindexter.
• It's ok to drink a beer on the train, but note it is cheaper to buy it at a drug store near the station instead of at the station.
• Just accept the fact that sometimes the train is not going to stop in front of your part of the door clump. It does not give you the right to side shuffle into the door clump.
  

More to come, also open to suggestions.

No sign for you....

Rick linked to some stuff about how the Obama campaign is forgoing yard signs.. The link kind of makes the sarcastic point about how they are busy trying to win an election....

Wrong.

I would have to argue that this is beyond stupid....(but as a Republican I think it's great)

Why...

Well the advantages of yard signs are huge, first and foremost it is a way to get people involved in the race, contrary to what folks who are politically active think not everyone who wants to help your candidate by phone banking and walking.  Some just want a sign.  A sign that will get their neighbors thinking, a sign that may start a conversation with the guy next door who is undecided. 

Secondly, it is an opening to get signs for candidates down ticket up in someones yard.  Oh, you want an Obama sign sure we can do that any chance we can give a Bill Jones for State Rep sign as well?  They help down ticket because they are a gateway to get signs for lesser known candidates. It can provide names that can be used for other elections, hey you took an Obama sign in November can we give you a Jones for Mayor sign for the April election?  They help build lists.

Third, it just seems cocky not to do it.  They may be cliche' and I have said 'yard signs don't vote' more than a few times myself, but they do get people involved for not a whole lot of money. People expect them and feel slighted if you don't find them worthy, don't underestimate that especially if you have people calling you elitist.

Finally your candidates candidacy is  historic, people are going to want something to remember that, take advantage of that. 

Then again you obviously know what you are doing....

OneMan

Got to see it firsthand.

Was camping with the scouts this weekend at Starved Rock and we did some hiking at Matthiessen.  I have to say, as a taxpayer and fishing license holder in the state of Illinois I am seriously embarrassed for our state because of how poorly these sites are maintained and staffed...

Where do I start, well I had a bit of a problem finding the youth camping area (keep in mind I am what I think is the most visited of our state parks), so I first go to the gatehouse of the campground but there is no one there, turns out it is unmanned almost the entire day (if you camp you just put your money in an envelope and in a slot)  when I was a kid and we would camp at the Indiana Dunes their guardhouse at the campground was manned 24x7 all summer and during the weekends during the fall and spring.

So I head over to the lodge to ask, turns out they don't have a clue. It isn't their area, also they didn't offer to call someone to ask. Why bother, if the state isn't going to give a care why should the staff.

So I drove down to the park office and where the visitors center was because of flooding the parking lot was closed and there was no indication if the  visitors center was open. This became a theme for the time we were at the parks, we never got the same answer twice if the visitors center was open.

We headed back to the campground to just try and find the youth camping area, found it and life went on.  Was struck however by the one outhouse per gender for the entire youth camping area which when filled could contain several hundred campers.  Our counsel scout camps have much better bathroom facilities....  There was a small bathroom that was shared with the general campground that had running water, however if the youth camping area was full and the campground was full I can't imagine what it is like....

So we go hike at Matthiessen, and get to step over trees that have fallen (about 3 in all) that are accross the path and have been there for quite some time.  They have a really clever set of stepping stones they have built in this creek to make the hike rather interesting, that would be of course if those stepping stones were in fact maintained, so instead there are stones on their sides, some that are missing etc, so it becomes quite the challenge at points.  

At Matthiessen the parking lot was almost full so it's not a matter of the parks not getting used.

However if they get in much worse shape, what's going to be the point...  Seriously, I was embarrassed for our state.

Can a little ceramic statue change the political landscape in Aurora?

Well, under the heading of things I never thought I would write....

It looks like a 'Precious Moments' collection will have a major impact on the mayors race in Aurora.

Alderman and candidate for mayor Stephanie Kifowit received a donation of various precious moments figurines and other objects from the daughter of the founder of the precious moments company.....

Big deal you may say....

The collection is valued at $400,000

In the article it says she is going to try and sell them at events and craft shows, if I was her I would try to find a single buyer (or a few buyers) for the whole collection to get the money quickly.

Assuming she only nets 250 to 300K out of the whole deal, it puts her in front in the money race and also may keep some other possible candidates as well.

That's the thing about Illinois campaign finance rules one donor can be a game changer.

OneMan

Making the Call

Well it appears that Senator Obama did drop a dime on Senator Jones...

Have to give him credit for that, now to see if it will do anything....

OneMan

Ethics Bill Stalled

It would appear that the junior senator of Illinois has still done jack to try and get the state senate in session....

Looking forward to Zorn blogging about this.. 

Oh yeah he has gone into all anti McCain/Palin all the time until the election...

OneMan

I have to take the OpenLine guys to task...

The openline guys did an item about the Aurora mayors race recently and argued that Stephanie Kifowit isn't a legitimate candidate for mayor.

Sorry, totally wrong.  

I may not agree with her on the whole city manager thing but to argue that she isn't a legitimate candidate is just well, kind of silly.  She has raised money not bad money all things considered including some cash from non-traditional sources (like a transfer from Lou Lang a democratic state rep from Skokie).  She is out there working and has been doing some social networking things are are basically unheard of in local Aurora politics.

With the changes to election law unless we get to the 5 candidate mark 3 or 4 candidates may give Mayor Weisner a real advantage.  Then you just have to deal with that.

At this point I would argue that Stephanie has been much more active in campaigning that Rick (that is my perception, I may be wrong).  I am sure that is for a reason, Rick has always struck me as a man with a plan, something uncommon in politics sometimes. 

Suffice to say it's going to be an interesting race and so far all the candidates declared are in fact legitimate...

Some thoughts....

To some extent when the liberal blogspehre gets in an uproar over something and screams in hyperbole or better yet gets snookered into something they are playing right into the McCain-Plain campaign. 

You are not going to convince anyone who reads your stuff that McCain isn't the answer, they are already there you just provide evidence to some middle of the roaders that you are as scary as their conservative pals claim.

Also if you are against hunting than McCain-Palin isn't the answer for you either...

You are going to need hunters in Ohio and Pennsylvania if your guys is going to win this thing so keep up the idea that Obama-Biden is anti-hunting that will work....

You should be proud

The Illinois State Senate is not going to go back into session until after the November election to consider the lottery lease, ethics bill override or the budget cuts.  

The same body where most of Sen. Obama's legislative experience comes from.

So while they do nothing, state parks and historical sites close, state services are cut and DNR is reduced to a shell of it's former self in part because our governor hasn't ever visited a state park. Community addiction services are cut, jobs are cut. We have $360,000 for organic food for school lunches for a school in Chicago (so the governor can look like a cool dude with the possible new owner of the Cubs)

Seriously this is getting to the point where it isn't funny anymore, it's just sad...

OneMan

This would be interesting...

If there were folks camping at the state parks that are closing and they refused to leave on closing day.  Think of the images that could show up on TV, state police having to evict campers, the local sheriff refusing to do so....

Perhaps sit-ins at the historic sites on the days they were set to close.  Think with Obama running for president it might even make national news.

State senate might be motivated to prevent that from occurring.

Just sayin....

OneMan 

Why I don't have a problem with a GOP 'Star Chamber'

Rich had some stuff about a GOP 'Star Chamber' figuring out who to back for statewide races.

First some snark: Yes because the Democrats system in Illinois of "Who's kid wants to run for what?" is a more democratic approach.  As an added bonus we can include the "kids get to skip the primary" system that they have mastered here.

End of snark:

Well at this point, I don't have a problem with any group that is not tied to a position set that guarantees defeat trying to line up funding and support for a set of candidates.  If it is going to help elect Republicans then I am cool with it.  One of our many issues is that a set of the groups that have views that really don't help candidates get elected are getting behind candidates (which is their right) however groups that will support candidates that may have a better chance of getting elected kind of sit back and do nothing.

So you want to buy a lottery....

Well I dusted off the spreadsheet I did when this first came up and I have made it available here...

Again I am not a finance professional and it's been a while since I had finance in grad school....

Turns out my estimate for FY 2007 earnings were only off by 9 million on sales of over two billion (not bad if I say so myself), for the annouced 2008 earnings I am off by 50 million, the had a 2.8% revenue growth I estimated 3%.  If you want the spreadsheet, or collaborate on it with via Google spreadsheets, send me an e-mail, I will also be willing to send you the actual spreadsheet if you send an e-mail the highlights however.

Using a annual growth rate of 5% and a 3% inflation rate, the NPV value (how much you would pay today to get the cash flows over time) is between 24 and 25 billion dollars (depending on which net present value formula you use) for about a 25 year lease.

It does bring up some interesting numbers near the end however, by 2033 lottery revenues show 7.5 Billion dollars,  assuming that Illinois has about 13 million people today  that if population remains flat, every man, woman and child in Illinois would be spending abut $577 a year in lottery tickets. 

So 25 Billion, that is the max (using the numbers I have and set) that you would expect anyone to pay for the lottery lease 

The posts from 2006 are here and here.

Again there are a ton of risks to anyone who leases this thing. So I doubt you get anything near 24 billion, also the contract is going to have some conditions including....

1) Protection from any legislative changes that would impact my ability to sell tickets. For example, making sales at bars illegal.
2) Some consideration if gaming is expanded in any way within the state, be it new casinos, slots at racetracks, etc. 
3) Any change in the way my revenue is taxed by the state(I saw what you did to the casino people)
4) Protection for any change in the way lottery winnings are taxed.
5) Protection for any changes within MegaMillions that impact me differently than any other state.
6) Protection for any changes within the state pension program for my employees if I have to keep them in the state plan.
7) I want the current marketing restriction on targeting groups lifted. I want free reign to market to people over 18.
8) I want to be and want my retailers to be protected against any local taxing change. So if Chicago decides to tax lottery tickets I am covered.

9) Protection if a change in federal law ends the lottery.

10) Protection for any changes in procurement law, if you tell me I now have to source with the state.

11) If the state runs any special issue tickets (vets funding, cancer research, etc)  I get a % of the cut, after some low limit. If sales exceed Z I get almost all of it.

A whole lot of Republican give a...

Sigh of relief...

She did a great job, some great one liners, was very engaging. I almost feel like Kris Matthews after an Obama speech...

Headline from the Tribune

After 81-foot fatal fall, Starved Rock considers more caution signs

OneMan comment: Due to budget cuts they can't afford signs.

Haven't really blogged about the Palin thing much....

To be honest it's more fun to respond to other blog posts, we will see how she does tonight.

Well I guess McCain can forget the Bullwinkle Vote

I think America needs as VP who can cube a Moose

Maybe that means Palin is a little too much Northern Exposure for America—after all, her father's good friend Curt Menard happily showed me a picture of the governor as a high schooler in 1981, in a root cellar with family and friends, helping skin and cube and cure a whole moose. It's enough to make you almost miss fake hunters like John Kerry and Mitt Romney.