For their technology adoption.
Just heard from a buddy that Bob Shillerstrom has just shy of 3,000 on-line viewers of his announcement today live and over 1,000 downloads the first hour.
A really good first step. Looking forward to the others stepping their game up.
Tech and the net is not just a place for Democrats to hang out and take advantage of.
OneMan
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
I find it interesting...
That the same people who scream about the sanctity of life seem to hesitant to have government help people with health and disability issues.
OneMan
OneMan
Rasing my taxes...
It isn't that I don't want government to take care of people....
I just want someone to explain how we have a 14 times what the lottery pumps into the budget every year budget deficit.
or
Using the Illinois Bluebook Budget pdf page 202 in FY 2007 the 'All funds' total was 54.2 billion dollars 23% of that came from income taxes or 12,240,000,000
So how in the heck did we end up with a budget deficit almost equal to what the state took in income taxes for 2007?
I want someone to explain that to me.
Also before I have to start reaching deeper into my paycheck to cover state government, I want to know what the cuts are first.
OneMan
I just want someone to explain how we have a 14 times what the lottery pumps into the budget every year budget deficit.
or
Using the Illinois Bluebook Budget pdf page 202 in FY 2007 the 'All funds' total was 54.2 billion dollars 23% of that came from income taxes or 12,240,000,000
So how in the heck did we end up with a budget deficit almost equal to what the state took in income taxes for 2007?
I want someone to explain that to me.
Also before I have to start reaching deeper into my paycheck to cover state government, I want to know what the cuts are first.
OneMan
So if it is a 11 Billion dollar deficit
And it is about a 5 ~ 6 Billion tax increase, where is the rest going to come from?
Albany makes Springfield seem almost sane...
From a NY TV Station
After talks of a power-sharing arrangement broke down, Democrats locked themselves in the Senate chamber, Republicans tried to conduct business on their own and none of the "people's business" got done
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Today's Protest At The Thompson Center.
Well you can call what the governor is doing with the current budget situation, but I can say one thing for sure.
People do seem to be scared, really scared.
The last protest at the Thompson Center seemed to have more people who have a paycheck that would be impacted by cuts. This protest seemed to have more people who were going to be impacted by services cut. The disabled, elderly, kids were there is some numbers. Also I noticed several domestic violence organizations/agencies this time around and they were delivering a strong message, perhaps I have a bias on that one because of my size or something the idea of being physically violent to someone smaller and weaker is wrong at it's most basic level.
I think these folks are going to be your strongest advocates to reach out to those who voted against the tax hike.
It's easy for suburban mom or dad to see a story like they had in the Beacon yesterday about funding being cut to a organization that helps people file for benefits with the state. A lot of folks don't ever see themselves or someone they know needing that sort of help.
A domestic violence shelter however is something everyone can see not only a need for but likely knows someone who has had to deal with that issue directly.
The number of people protesting who you felt had never protested anything before in their life was much higher too.
OneMan
People do seem to be scared, really scared.
The last protest at the Thompson Center seemed to have more people who have a paycheck that would be impacted by cuts. This protest seemed to have more people who were going to be impacted by services cut. The disabled, elderly, kids were there is some numbers. Also I noticed several domestic violence organizations/agencies this time around and they were delivering a strong message, perhaps I have a bias on that one because of my size or something the idea of being physically violent to someone smaller and weaker is wrong at it's most basic level.
I think these folks are going to be your strongest advocates to reach out to those who voted against the tax hike.
It's easy for suburban mom or dad to see a story like they had in the Beacon yesterday about funding being cut to a organization that helps people file for benefits with the state. A lot of folks don't ever see themselves or someone they know needing that sort of help.
A domestic violence shelter however is something everyone can see not only a need for but likely knows someone who has had to deal with that issue directly.
The number of people protesting who you felt had never protested anything before in their life was much higher too.
OneMan
An Image from Today's Protest at the Thompson Center.
This is one of the pictures I took, it was a violence prevention group. I suspect it made the news tonight.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
More Poker, lets run some more numbers
Now lets talk numbers a bit, the 30% tax rate for the state is based on Net Terminal Income (page 72) that is money put into a video gaming terminal minus credits paid out to players.
So lets say you want the state to get $500,000,000 each year (sort of the middle of the $345 to $641 million range the Trib references).
500 Million is about 30% of $1,666,666,666.67 (really the 666 numbers are the way it works out, not an editorial)
So you need a Net Terminal Revenue Number of $1.7 Billion dollars for the entire state. or $37,037.04 per machine. In order to get to a Net Terminal Revenue number with an 80% payout (minimum allowed by law) you would need to have $185,185.19 bet per machine or about 8,333,333,333 bet statewide.
Again there is no way the average payout is going to be at 80% but I am giving the state the benefit of the doubt, without it, the numbers are even tougher to hit.
8,333,333,333 * .2 = 1,666,666,667 (Net Terminal Revenue)
So with about 8,300,000 people over the age of 18 in Illinois, it works out to each person will have to bet about $1,000 on video poker to hit the 8.3 Billion bet number.
Assuming you can bet $100 an hour, that would be 10 hours of play for every adult in the state or 83,000,000 man hours playing or each machine would have to be in use about 1,844 hours a year. Another way of looking at it each machine would have to average about 5 hours a day of $100 an hour play every day of the year.
Another number to ponder, to meet the net terminal revenue number every adult in the state would have to lose about $200 a year a video poker.
OneMan
So lets say you want the state to get $500,000,000 each year (sort of the middle of the $345 to $641 million range the Trib references).
500 Million is about 30% of $1,666,666,666.67 (really the 666 numbers are the way it works out, not an editorial)
So you need a Net Terminal Revenue Number of $1.7 Billion dollars for the entire state. or $37,037.04 per machine. In order to get to a Net Terminal Revenue number with an 80% payout (minimum allowed by law) you would need to have $185,185.19 bet per machine or about 8,333,333,333 bet statewide.
Again there is no way the average payout is going to be at 80% but I am giving the state the benefit of the doubt, without it, the numbers are even tougher to hit.
8,333,333,333 * .2 = 1,666,666,667 (Net Terminal Revenue)
So with about 8,300,000 people over the age of 18 in Illinois, it works out to each person will have to bet about $1,000 on video poker to hit the 8.3 Billion bet number.
Assuming you can bet $100 an hour, that would be 10 hours of play for every adult in the state or 83,000,000 man hours playing or each machine would have to be in use about 1,844 hours a year. Another way of looking at it each machine would have to average about 5 hours a day of $100 an hour play every day of the year.
Another number to ponder, to meet the net terminal revenue number every adult in the state would have to lose about $200 a year a video poker.
OneMan
The Trib Talks Video Poker.
Well the Trib had a piece today about video poker and makes some really good points about the regulatory challenges the state is going to face.
Since you are going to have to at least going to have to basic background check
In many ways the 9,000 number for the background check for the locations and the 11,000 number is low. From page 84
That will cover a lot of folks, how many licensed establishments are owned by big corporations? How many shareholders do they have that have over 5% (less than 20, I know but it will be a few). Do they do a background check on a large investor in Chilli's? Also how do you define officers of a veterans establishment (just the Commander, or all 20 or so officers)? Do you have to re-submit to background checks every time you get a new shareholder or a new officer?
Also
Ok, now I don't really understand the above, is the 1% such that a fraternal organization's members have a indirect pecuniary interest? I wouldn't think so, but who knows?
One of the real risks here is going to be who gets to go first. When this happens there is going to be a rush to the gaming board to get licensed since being the first to be able offer video poker equipment to locations is going to be a huge advantage. If the gaming board is smart they will establish how they decide who goes first and carefully document how they follow that procedure so clout does not come into play.
You think the Trib is being tough on U of I, imagine if they discover someone is pulling strings to get a campaign donor or local guy moved up on the distributor list.
OneMan
Since you are going to have to at least going to have to basic background check
- 50 Distributors (Equipment companies)
- 100 Terminal Operators (Owns, services the equipment) there will have to be at least 20 by law, since no one it seems can have more that 5% of the machines in the state
- 800 Licensed technicians (Repair folks) -- that's a logical guess. I think the number is low.
- 1000 Licensed terminal handler (light maintenance) -- Also a logical guess.
- 9,000 Locations (using the Tribs 45,000 machine number)
In many ways the 9,000 number for the background check for the locations and the 11,000 number is low. From page 84
The background
investigation shall include each beneficiary of a trust, each partner of a partnership, and each director and officer and all stockholders of 5% or more in a parent or subsidiary corporation of a video gaming terminal manufacturer, distributor, supplier, operator, or licensed establishment, licensed truck stop establishment, licensed fraternal establishment, or licensed veterans establishment.
That will cover a lot of folks, how many licensed establishments are owned by big corporations? How many shareholders do they have that have over 5% (less than 20, I know but it will be a few). Do they do a background check on a large investor in Chilli's? Also how do you define officers of a veterans establishment (just the Commander, or all 20 or so officers)? Do you have to re-submit to background checks every time you get a new shareholder or a new officer?
Also
(c) Each person seeking and possessing a license as a video a gaming terminal manufacturer, distributor, supplier, operator, handler, licensed establishment, licensed truck stop establishment, licensed fraternal establishment, or licensed veterans establishment shall disclose the identity of every person, association, trust, or corporation having a greater than 1% direct or indirect pecuniary interest in the video gaming terminal operation to which the license is sought. If the disclosed entity is a trust, the application shall disclose the names and addresses of the beneficiaries; if a corporation, the names and addresses of all stockholders and directors; if a partnership, the names and addresses of all partners, both general and limited.
Ok, now I don't really understand the above, is the 1% such that a fraternal organization's members have a indirect pecuniary interest? I wouldn't think so, but who knows?
One of the real risks here is going to be who gets to go first. When this happens there is going to be a rush to the gaming board to get licensed since being the first to be able offer video poker equipment to locations is going to be a huge advantage. If the gaming board is smart they will establish how they decide who goes first and carefully document how they follow that procedure so clout does not come into play.
You think the Trib is being tough on U of I, imagine if they discover someone is pulling strings to get a campaign donor or local guy moved up on the distributor list.
OneMan
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Well it's a little hard to tell what bill is the Video Gaming bill
But if it is HB2424 then here are a couple of thoughts....
In amendment one of the bill there are a few things that I notice (starting at page 74 of the PDF)
To my commenter about my thoughts about how to 'game' the system here is what I see as the definition of a "Licensed fraternal establishment" (pg 73~73) of the PDF
I don't see anything about a 5 year history. Also I may be reading this really wrong but it seems to me that this might include college fraternities and sororities..
But reading the law some more I found what I think is the most interesting part (page 87)
Doing some quick rough math assuming that $840 is bet per machine per day with a 80% payout (70 plays per hour over 12 hours and the 80% seems to be the minimum payout, see pg 74) when all is said and done after taxes and the 50/50 split you are looking at about a net of $294 if you are a facility with 5 machines (or close to 100K a year if they are played virtually every day)
However if you are a terminal operator with 1000 machines you net about 58,800 a day (note it appears no operator can have more than 5% of the machines in the state, so the 1000 number would be the high end in my logical guess) or about 17.6 Million in a given year...
Or just imagine 100 machines (lets say every machine that Aurora or Naperville may end up with, it only takes 20 establishments to get to that number) that 5,880 a day roughly 1,764,000 a year. Still not bad.
More to come
OneMan
In amendment one of the bill there are a few things that I notice (starting at page 74 of the PDF)
To my commenter about my thoughts about how to 'game' the system here is what I see as the definition of a "Licensed fraternal establishment" (pg 73~73) of the PDF
"Licensed fraternal establishment" means the location where a qualified fraternal organization that derives its charter from a national fraternal organization regularly meets.
I don't see anything about a 5 year history. Also I may be reading this really wrong but it seems to me that this might include college fraternities and sororities..
But reading the law some more I found what I think is the most interesting part (page 87)
Of the after-tax profits from a video gaming terminal, 50% shall be paid to the terminal operator and 50% shall be paid to the licensed establishment, licensed truck stop establishment, licensed fraternal establishment, or licensed veterans establishment.
Doing some quick rough math assuming that $840 is bet per machine per day with a 80% payout (70 plays per hour over 12 hours and the 80% seems to be the minimum payout, see pg 74) when all is said and done after taxes and the 50/50 split you are looking at about a net of $294 if you are a facility with 5 machines (or close to 100K a year if they are played virtually every day)
However if you are a terminal operator with 1000 machines you net about 58,800 a day (note it appears no operator can have more than 5% of the machines in the state, so the 1000 number would be the high end in my logical guess) or about 17.6 Million in a given year...
Or just imagine 100 machines (lets say every machine that Aurora or Naperville may end up with, it only takes 20 establishments to get to that number) that 5,880 a day roughly 1,764,000 a year. Still not bad.
More to come
OneMan
Monday, June 08, 2009
The Cloud and State Government..
One of the suggestions in Taxpayers Advisory Board was the state looking into working with other states to develop software systems and applications.
It's an interesting idea but I am not sure that I can see how you would have any real cost savings for years. Why, well the most logical things that could get 'clouded' early would be e-mail. But the state likely has already had significant sunk costs in it's current e-mail solution (Microsoft Exchange) so you would have some support costs you might save with Microsoft. The cost is for gmail professional is $50 a user a year, assuming due the the size of the state employee base we would get that cut to $25. That would likely be a savings over what the state is spending now. However there would be significant switching costs as well as some training costs as well.
Other applications such as Google docs and their spreadsheet product would have more significant switching costs as well as some training expenses.
Also since I suspect the state licenses the entire Microsoft Office suite for a bunch of users eliminating just the exchange support (that is servers and the like) your savings.
As for multi-state applications, well that sounds like an interesting idea. A single heath care payment processing system for several states for example. But that sort of thing would likely require changes in every state in terms of their own processes. There would be switching costs, the costs associated with developing the application(s), training costs as well as hardware costs.
Having worked in software the idea that you could create a major application that multiple states would share is rather hard to believe. Getting all those folks and agencies and states to agree would be next to impossible.
So any savings would be down the road and the costs would be higher in the shorter term.
OneMan
It's an interesting idea but I am not sure that I can see how you would have any real cost savings for years. Why, well the most logical things that could get 'clouded' early would be e-mail. But the state likely has already had significant sunk costs in it's current e-mail solution (Microsoft Exchange) so you would have some support costs you might save with Microsoft. The cost is for gmail professional is $50 a user a year, assuming due the the size of the state employee base we would get that cut to $25. That would likely be a savings over what the state is spending now. However there would be significant switching costs as well as some training costs as well.
Other applications such as Google docs and their spreadsheet product would have more significant switching costs as well as some training expenses.
Also since I suspect the state licenses the entire Microsoft Office suite for a bunch of users eliminating just the exchange support (that is servers and the like) your savings.
As for multi-state applications, well that sounds like an interesting idea. A single heath care payment processing system for several states for example. But that sort of thing would likely require changes in every state in terms of their own processes. There would be switching costs, the costs associated with developing the application(s), training costs as well as hardware costs.
Having worked in software the idea that you could create a major application that multiple states would share is rather hard to believe. Getting all those folks and agencies and states to agree would be next to impossible.
So any savings would be down the road and the costs would be higher in the shorter term.
OneMan
Sunday, June 07, 2009
So....
I have a commenter tell me that one of my primary theories about how to game the video poker system is off the table...
I will take the comment at face value and assume that from day 1 you couldn't create your own fraternal organizations.
It would seem to me two things, a I would question if the 5 year limit would stand up in court. Even if it did, I think the idea of using existing organizations to accomplish the video poker casino would work...
OneMan
I will take the comment at face value and assume that from day 1 you couldn't create your own fraternal organizations.
It would seem to me two things, a I would question if the 5 year limit would stand up in court. Even if it did, I think the idea of using existing organizations to accomplish the video poker casino would work...
OneMan
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Making the Video Poker numbers work..
I am having a hard time getting to the numbers the state is saying it can take in...
I have done a google spreadsheet here.
Assuming the tax rate is 30% on the net (earnings after payouts). To get to 236 Million a year of revenue there would have to be 100,000 machines (one for every 87 people over 18) being played with an average bet of $0.75 30 times an hour for 12 hours.
Or another way to think of it.
Every person over 18 would have to bet about $1,100 a year. At the average rate of betting listed above each person over 18 would have to spend 50 hours a year playing video poker.
Follow the link to see the sheet, if you want to edit it, let me know.
OneMan
[1] Number of Machines in use
[2] Number of bets placed on a machine per hour [3] hours each machine is in operation and being bet at the average bet rate and average bet listed above [4] 8.7 Million People over 18 in Illinois [5] Calculated by the average bet and average bets per hour [6] In hours |
I have done a google spreadsheet here.
Assuming the tax rate is 30% on the net (earnings after payouts). To get to 236 Million a year of revenue there would have to be 100,000 machines (one for every 87 people over 18) being played with an average bet of $0.75 30 times an hour for 12 hours.
Or another way to think of it.
Every person over 18 would have to bet about $1,100 a year. At the average rate of betting listed above each person over 18 would have to spend 50 hours a year playing video poker.
Follow the link to see the sheet, if you want to edit it, let me know.
OneMan
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