Sunday, April 03, 2011

Well it's an election day in two days...

Ran into a candidate for Alderman At Large today, asked me if I thought door to door was the best campaign approach. I pointed out it was likely better than robocalls and direct mail in this case.

When it comes down to winning the race for Alderman at Large in Aurora, it is going to come down to which candidate has the best turnout in those wards where there are contested aldermatic races. Because that is really the only races that are going to attract any attention in the city, yeah there are school board races, but you have to be really hard core to go vote for school board and there is a tax thing from the county but it will only add about 10 a year to tax bills, so I don't see that driving a big anti-tax vote. So the only real driver of turnout is going to be local adermatic races, with several incumbent aldermen facing challenges it is going to make sense for them to campaign and build up turnout (since that is another race where turnout is key).

So if I were running for Alderman At Large, I would have focused my efforts on those wards with contested races. I think that is going to be key.

My turnout guess, 27% in the city as a whole and lower in some areas.

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