Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Bill Foster and the New 11th District.

Well Bill Foster appears to have been missing congress, so he is going to be running again. This time in the new 11th district that contains, Aurora, Elgin, Joliet and Naperville.

The Beacon has a story here. I am going to take parts of it and offer some additional insights.

Well #1 he doesn't live in the district and it appears he has no plans to move into the district
Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean, who lost to Walsh in 2010, never lived in her district and it was not an issue, Foster said.

Ummm, Bill there is a reason she is Former U.S. Rep., she lost, just like you did. So I am not sure you can say that is wasn't an issue.

Foster’s press release included an endorsement from Tom Weisner, the mayor of Aurora — the largest city in the 11th District.

That's nice, not sure how some Aurora Democrats feel about him, also at the end of the day, politically Tom is about Tom. I don't seem to recall him busting his hump for you in the fall. This endorsement is as much about the next mayors race as anything else.

He lost a close election to then-state Sen. Randy Hultgren of Winfield in 2010.

Well, lets look at the results of the special that got Foster into office (please note the election was held on a Saturday)

FOSTER 52205 52.53%
OBERWEIS 47180 47.47%

Now lets look at the 2010 general

HULTGREN 112369 51.31%
FOSTER 98645 45.04%
KAIRIS 7949 3.63%
MARKS 50 0.02%

So in fact Fosters victory in the special was closer than the defeat in the 'close' election.

Also keep in mind this from the 2008 primary

FOSTER 32410 20.88%
LAESCH 32012 20.62%

.26% seperated Foster who spent a fortune compared to Laesch and he barely beat him. (How close this was still blows my mind).

So unless he moves a lot of his own money into the race again (like he did the first time he ran) he may not be able to keep a serious primary challenger out.

Why, well the only part of the district that is really the same from last time is Aurora the rest of it is new, so they were not getting the slick franked mailers he used to send out. Also the ethnic breakout of the district is different so a Hispanic Democrat might have a real shot in a primary.

So I think he is moving early, just like he did before to try and clear the field, it will be interesting to see if it works this time. I suspect he might face a challenge from at least Laesch, it might be Mrs. Laesch but a challenge all the same.

Suffice to say it is going to be fun to watch.

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