Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Aurora, Video Gaming and Some Math

Well it appears that Aurora thinks it can get $550,000 a year out of video gaming in the city (outside of the casino)

Lets run some numbers...

5% of the revenue will go to the city.  So for the city to get $555,000 a year there would have to be $11,000,000 in revenue from video gaming in the city (555,000 is 5% of $11,000,000)

Keep in mind $11,000,000 is a revenue number, so lets figure out what the gross betting would need to be.

Assuming a 90% payoff (the state minimum is 80% so I am going to go into the middle), this is a bit below the rate for most Illinois casinos in terms of slot machines (at least using those numbers)

So $11,000,000 is 10%, the other 90% is returned to players as winnings. So to get a $11,000,000 revenue you have to  $110,000,000 million 'played' a year or $301,3770 a day 365 days a year.

So this is where things get even more interesting in my opinion.  Lets assume the average bet is $.25 so to get to $110,000,000 in play you would have to have 440,000,000 plays a year, that's right a bit short of half a billion video poker plays.

Or assume that each facility is open for gaming 18 hours a day, 365 days a year  or 394,200 minutes a year, so divide 440,000,000 by 394,200 you get 1,116 plays every minute of for 18 hours a day 365 days a year.
A skilled player, playing fast appears to be able to play about 80 hands a minute, a normal person lets say a hand every 3 seconds (a guess but a rational one) so about 20 a minute.

$110,000,000 by 394,200 or every minute $279.05 would have to be bet, 18 hours a day, 365 days a year.

Let's just use the $11,000,000 number (revenue) and  127,575 (the number of people in town 21 and older from to 2010 census) video poker has to take $86.22 from every adult in town for the city to get it's $550,000

Finally lets use the gross number $110,000,000 and 127,575 with you have to have $862.23 bet by every adult in town.

You planning to put $862.23 in a video poker in town, because I know I am not...

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